University "Experts" Predict... More Uncertainty? Shocker.
The "Experts" Are At It Again
Oh, joy. Another "Economic Outlook" from the so-called experts at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. https://www.chicagobooth.edu/ (Yeah, I looked it up) This time, they're calling it "Uncertainties and Tradeoffs: Making Sense of the Global Economy." Give me a break. "Making sense"? If they could actually *make* sense, would we be in this mess to begin with?
They're trotting out the usual suspects – profs pontificating about tariffs, Fed policy, and AI. As if any of them have ever run a real business or worried about making payroll. It's all academic theory divorced from reality. Sounds like a bunch of doomscrolling to me.
And McKinsey's chiming in too, with their "Global Survey on economic conditions." Apparently, executives are now super worried about trade policy. Oh, *now* they're worried? Where were they five years ago? Ten years ago? Probably too busy counting their bonuses.
This whole thing reminds me of that old saying: "An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today." Ain't that the truth.
Trade Wars: McKinsey Finally Notices the Obvious?
The Trade War That Never Ends
Trade policy is the new boogeyman, apparently. "For the second consecutive quarter, shifts in trade policy have emerged as the most-cited disruption to growth..." the McKinsey report bleats.
No duh.
We've been in a trade war for years, and these guys are just now figuring it out? It's like watching a slow-motion train wreck and then acting surprised when the train derails.
And get this: McKinsey says that companies are starting to see trade policy changes as an "opportunity." Oh really? An opportunity to what? Jack up prices on consumers? Move production to some other low-wage hellhole? Let's be real, it's an opportunity for them, not for us. You can read more about their analysis in the
Economic conditions outlook, September 2025.
Speaking of opportunities, I'm still waiting for my opportunity to pay off my student loans.
AI to the Rescue? Or Just Another Overhyped Fad?
AI: Savior or Destroyer?
Then there's the AI angle. The US Economic Forecast Q3 2025 says that even if AI doesn't create "strong productivity gains," it's already having a "sizable effect on business investment growth."
Translation: Companies are throwing money at AI, hoping it'll save their butts from the coming recession. Will it work? Maybe. Will it replace a bunch of jobs? Almost certainly.
The forecast optimistically predicts business investment will remain strong... but I'm not buying it. How long before reality sets in and companies realize that AI is just another overhyped tech fad?
And what happens when AI starts making all the economic forecasts? Will they be any more accurate than the ones we're getting now? I doubt it. But offcourse, machines don't have to worry about being right, they just have to follow the algorithm.
I'm starting to think the robots are already running things.
Immigration: The Convenient Scapegoat (Again)
The Immigration Wildcard
And then there's the immigration angle. The US Economic Forecast notes that lower net migration puts "downward pressure on the forecast." Fewer workers, less economic output. It's basic math.
But wait, aren't we constantly told that immigrants are stealing our jobs and depressing wages? Which is it? Can't have it both ways, folks.
I will say, I'm not sure anyone *really* knows what's going on with immigration. It's a political football, and the numbers are always skewed to fit whatever narrative someone's trying to push. So maybe I am the crazy one here.
So, What's the Real Story?
It's all smoke and mirrors. The "experts" are clueless, the corporations are greedy, and the government is making it up as they go along. Buckle up, folks. It's gonna be a bumpy ride.
