Mortgage Rate Musings: A November Snapshot
Zillow's latest data dump on November 5th, 2025, shows a slight dip in average mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed is down four basis points to 6.08%, and the 15-year fixed is down one basis point to 5.62%. Nothing earth-shattering, but worth a peek. Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, November 5, 2025: Rates are inching down - Yahoo Finance
The spread between the 30-year and 15-year fixed remains, well, a spread. You're paying more each month with the 15-year, but saving a boatload on interest over the life of the loan. The trade-off is classic: short-term pain for long-term gain. (Or, in some cases, short-term pain that's simply too much to bear.)
Rates across the board are showing minor fluctuations. The 20-year fixed sits at 5.89%, while ARMs (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) are hovering around 6.4%, give or take a few basis points depending on the term. VA loans – those guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs – are, as usual, offering slightly better deals for eligible borrowers. A 30-year VA loan is at 5.67%, compared to the standard 6.08%. It’s a perk, and one that’s consistently reflected in the market.
Refinance Realities: Still a Tricky Game
Refinance rates are, predictably, a touch higher than purchase rates. The 30-year fixed refinance is at 6.31%, a full 23 basis points above the purchase rate. This isn't exactly news; refinance rates often carry a premium. The logic is simple: lenders know you're already locked in, so they can squeeze a bit more juice.
Now, here's where it gets a little murky. The data suggests rates will remain in a "tight range" for the next few months. Okay, fine. But why? What are the underlying economic factors driving this prediction? Are we talking about a holding pattern until the Fed makes its next move? Or is there something else at play that Zillow isn't highlighting? Details on the methodology behind that forecast are, unfortunately, absent.
The historical context provided is… well, it's basic. 30-year mortgages have lower monthly payments but higher interest rates. 15-year mortgages are the opposite. ARMs adjust. We all knew that. The real question is: how are these relationships trending? Are the spreads widening or narrowing? That's the kind of granular detail that makes a difference.
The note about mortgage rates moving lower since the government shutdown is interesting, but it lacks specifics. How much lower? What's the correlation coefficient? And more importantly, is this a causal relationship, or simply a correlation? (The shutdown could have merely coincided with other market forces.)
Finally, the Federal Reserve considering another rate cut is the elephant in the room. If the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates will almost certainly follow. But by how much? And what will be the long-term impact on inflation? These are the questions that anyone seriously considering a mortgage should be asking.
So, What's the Real Story?
This data is a snapshot – a single frame in a movie. It tells us where rates are, but not why, and certainly not where they're going. The lack of depth in the analysis is frustrating. I’ve looked at hundreds of these reports, and the absence of predictive modeling (even a simple regression analysis) is glaring. It's just… numbers on a page. This isn't insight; it's information. And information without context is just noise.